MI and Fl Delegate Debacle – Do The Voters Care?

A brief follow-up to my last post about the Michigan and Florida Democratic Primary kerfuffle. Gallup released some numbers today about what Democrats feel should be done with the MI and FL primaries:

Democrats Favor Compromise on Florida, Michigan Delegates:

In general, most Democrats (55%) favor a compromise that would allow the two states’ delegates to participate, rather than excluding those states’ delegates entirely (23%), which is the current plan. Twenty-one percent do not have an opinion either way.

But those who favor a compromise divide almost equally between a “do-over” primary or caucus to be held in those states between now and the convention, and finding a way to abide by the results of the January contests in which neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama actively campaigned (in Michigan, Obama was not even on the ballot) and no delegates were officially at stake.

And this chart, for the win:

I think I disagree with Gallup’s interpretation of this finding – that Democrats favor a ‘compromise’. I would re-frame it this way – only one quarter of Democrats favor seating the MI and FL delegates based on the uncontested January primaries. Beyond that, one quarter are vindicative and think MI and FL blew their chance, and another quarter want a re-vote. Finally, a quarter simply don’t care very much. Writing the headline “Democrats Favor Compromise on Florida, Michigan Delegates” misstates the findings – only 55% (possible not even a statistically significant majority, given the +/- 5 margin of error) supported any sort of compromise.

Interestingly, 30% of Clinton supporters favor seating the delegates based on the January primaries, but so do 20% of Obama supporters. I’d be curious to hear some speculation on why this might be. If nothing else, it means even 70% of Clinton supporters don’t buy the campaign’s arguments about seating the delegates.

I’d be interested to know if Gallup asked about whether these Democrats believed that seating the FL and MI delegates would have any effect on the general election. I don’t think it will matter if they get seated or not, but I wonder if that argument is gaining any ground.

Anyway, last post for awhile probably – I’m off on a short trip.

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